https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies daily 0.75 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/1c0875e8-41c6-4d54-bf01-8899b0d91ec6/lena_ast_2005197_lrg.jpg https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/european-defence-and-legitimacy-problem monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/bddff42d-e1f9-49f1-8478-a662d65155c2/Figure+1+-+EEAS+Mission+Map.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - European Defence and the Legitimacy Problem - Make it stand out Figure 1: European External Action Service mission map https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/a07242e1-cf20-4d48-9c25-e365adc58b4f/Figure+2+-+European+Security+Architecture+Map.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - European Defence and the Legitimacy Problem - Make it stand out Figure 2: European Security Architecture map https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/11fb38d1-5d58-40d8-a0a1-0f2c88700aa9/Figure+3+-+Defense+Spending+in+Europe+2017-2030.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - European Defence and the Legitimacy Problem - Make it stand out Figure 3: European Defence Spending Past and Projected https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/3a238abe-c398-498a-8435-c00a9116fe36/Figure+4+-+EU+800bn+defense+plan.jpeg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - European Defence and the Legitimacy Problem - Make it stand out Figure 4: ReArm Europe Plan https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/ce7ffb6f-4e58-434b-bff8-9245799e126b/Figure+5+-+ECFR+European+Public+Responses+Defense.webp Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - European Defence and the Legitimacy Problem - Make it stand out Figure 5: European Public Attitudes on Defence Topics https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/shrinking-humanity monthly 0.5 2026-02-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/002dbac5-190f-47e4-943c-ce1cecc580bd/Figure+1+-+Global+TFR+projections+by+region+Bhattercharjee+et+al.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Source: Bhattacharjee, N. et al. (2024), “Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/ab5729b7-8bfa-47fa-88f1-c2975e9b83e1/Figure+2+-+Jonaten+Pallesen+euro+population+forecast.jpeg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Source https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/789ce69a-9a5a-4264-b6b6-0eb40186ba8a/Figure+3+-+WiD+fertility+chart.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Dropping below two, country by country https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/373d10cf-28da-4624-8557-d8ec953e46fb/Figure+4+-+Chinese+regional+TFR.jpeg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Source https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/54a4a88c-5fb5-4193-b1fc-61b0780ebfe4/Screenshot+2026-02-23+at+11.14.27.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Source: After the Spike: The Risks of Global Depopulation and the Case for People, Dean Spears & Michael Geruso (2025) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/d78f3898-fa4e-45dd-a368-40003ed2ce17/Figure+6+-+Population+%26+temperature.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Long-run warming is similar between population scenarios https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/0ffaa092-3dee-4c91-830b-3e37cf0c5845/Figure+7+-+Household+Pension+Entitlements.jfif Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/4b61baba-af05-4cf5-92eb-a47d758409e8/Figure+8+-+High+Innovation+Low+Fertility.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/ca25ebc9-5212-486e-ad25-4090627940a5/Figure+7+-+Jesus+Fernandez+Villaverde+2026-02-23+08_54_08-Slides_London.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Shrinking Humanity - Make it stand out Source https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/strong-democracies-are-a-necessity-for-crisis-management monthly 0.5 2026-02-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/76547ede-5c84-41a2-84ee-b2d91b93c89f/figure_1.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Strong Democracies are a Necessity for Crisis Management - Make it stand out Figure 1: Proportion of global population living democracies or autocracies (1789 to 2025). This figure should be read with the caveat that democracy is not a binary category but a spectrum, and regime classifications inevitably simplify complex institutional realities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/8da5a4fa-385b-4e30-98d6-83e0c55d47f6/figure_2.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Strong Democracies are a Necessity for Crisis Management - Make it stand out Figure 2: Overview of what kind of global catastrophes different countries consider in their national risk assessments. “Tangentially” refers to the hazard being mentioned, but not discussed further. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/ce7d1405-8e3e-45bf-a836-bfa5b14be0e5/figure_3.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Strong Democracies are a Necessity for Crisis Management - Make it stand out Figure 3: Death from large famines compared by political regime. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/c68e197c-ac5d-4b7a-91da-60adb9c54c09/figure_4.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Strong Democracies are a Necessity for Crisis Management - Make it stand out Figure 4: Comparison of positive societal outcomes (Long-term Background - LTB - index consisting of factors like health, public transport etc.) between democracies and autocracies. A higher index indicates better outcomes for general society. The y axis is a kernel density estimate, this means it is a smoothed approximation of the data points present. In simpler terms this just means higher values on the y-axis indicate more countries are concentrated around that LTB index value. https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/the-atlantic-divide-on-parking-reform monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/1e91bdca-5961-432b-912f-f5f671518fa3/2025-08-10+15_39_33-Window.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out Map of parking lots in downtown Atlanta Georgia. Source: Parking Reform Network [9]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/26f79c05-f5c9-4c77-8fa1-052647eda879/Screenshot+2025-10-06+at+14.42.21.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out Unused parking in a light industrial area near Durham, North Carolina. Source: CityBuilder [18]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/91446c33-8cfe-4eb6-bee6-1e0c4596ed7c/Shoup-parking-kiosk.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out Donald Shoup, parking reform “guru”. Source: UCLA [19]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/33913f7d-253f-4ad1-ba0e-0be3ba7bd396/801193fb-1bc9-48ff-aa1c-c7b410fb21e6.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out Washington state Governor Ferguson signs the 2025 Parking Reform and Modernization Act. Source: Sightline Institute [22]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/575161db-d4ff-4993-8f0b-3122f3674405/ee505acf-6d23-43d2-94a1-dded7618e361.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out An image that went viral in 2020 showing the centre of Siena, Italy home to 30,000 people, and, at the same scale, a highway intersection in Houston, TX. Source: Chron [26]. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/51114f3d-0b15-4af1-b4d7-1f08ada28d08/Screenshot+2025-10-06+at+14.46.03.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform - Make it stand out Nearly one-fifth of parking fees in Ghent, Belgium, are earmarked for spending on active travel. Source: European Commission [40]. https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/modeling-state-recognition-as-a-displacement-stabilizer-in-the-horn-of-africa monthly 0.5 2025-11-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/97654270-9bb1-45db-8ba5-56de58c4c4cf/Somaliland+federal+map.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Modeling State Recognition as a Displacement Stabilizer in the Horn of Africa - Make it stand out Source: Somalia’s Federal Future Layered Agendas, Risks and Opportunities, Chatham House, September 2015 p.3 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/7f8e2ca1-ea70-4ccd-b95a-417df805fa06/IDMC+Internal+Displacements+Chart.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Modeling State Recognition as a Displacement Stabilizer in the Horn of Africa - Make it stand out Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Somalia https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/b6730bcd-3c39-4b42-80fc-cd41015e7558/Displacement+Flows+Sousa+et+al+ARXIV.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Modeling State Recognition as a Displacement Stabilizer in the Horn of Africa - Make it stand out Path reconstruction and spatial displacement flows. (A) Reconstruction of the path from an origin to a destination point using the displacement matrix. Starting with an origin-destination pair (top panel), running simulations allows us to estimate a potential path between those points (bottom panel). Numbers in the figure correspond to node ID. Such paths enable us to identify the hazards people are likely to encounter if they undertake that journey. (B) Representation of the most probable hazard to occur in each region of Somalia and displacements between regions. The width of the links represents the number of IDPs who took that journey. The southern region exhibits the greatest density of movements, and it is also a region with a high incidence of conflicts. Source: Walking Through Complex Spatial Patterns of Climate and Conflict-Induced Displacements (Sousa et al, 2025) https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/rebooting-nuclear-safety-regulation-for-the-electrification-era monthly 0.5 2025-11-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/6e0cce38-e70c-4a8e-b042-e4a5d5ec6652/Screenshot+2025-07-09+at+20.21.55.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Rebooting Nuclear Safety Regulation for the Electrification Era - Make it stand out Source: The Political Economic Determinants of Nuclear Power: Evidence from Chernobyl (2024) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/ce9d0664-8dfc-4151-ab4c-ef318aa83bdc/Estimated+Capital+Costs+of+New+Nuclear+Power+Plants+in+US+%28LOWRES%29.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Rebooting Nuclear Safety Regulation for the Electrification Era - Make it stand out Estimated capital cost of new nuclear power plants in the US Source: Why Nuclear Power Has Been A Flop, p279. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/21c7a317-96ad-43c1-b1a3-9c2831e2a567/Screenshot+2025-07-09+at+20.18.03.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Rebooting Nuclear Safety Regulation for the Electrification Era - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/8dfb87dd-b1e8-4e68-ae6b-1864de25c65b/German+coal+production+emissions+map+%28LOWRES%29.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Rebooting Nuclear Safety Regulation for the Electrification Era - Make it stand out Source: Michael A Arouet on X.com https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/mercy-outlasts-missiles monthly 0.5 2026-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/7654e1d8-0fea-464c-ab1e-c5d71486b3ef/Mercy1.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Mercy Outlasts Missiles - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/7b12b7cf-78e0-4f01-b500-9ff702808a66/Mercy+2.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Mercy Outlasts Missiles - Make it stand out ARA kitchen (in the former palace of the Grand Duchess Olga Alexandrovna), Petrograd, circa 1922. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/3810a3d6-c829-4847-86c5-fcfe2e68efca/Mercy+3.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Mercy Outlasts Missiles - Make it stand out One of Russia’s most popular children’s poets Kornei Chukovsky in 1923 lionized the ARA by saying “I doubt if any American will ever understand our poetical happiness on the great day when, dusted with flour, my whole family dragged home the cart with the long-awaited ARA packages and carried them up to our lodgings on the third floor.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/7236d169-2f59-4e3c-8ccc-843013757b4d/Mercy+4.png Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - Mercy Outlasts Missiles - Make it stand out Harold Blandy (seated with X on torso) and his Russian interpreter Gorin (seated with + on torso), winter 1922. Digital record. Between the two seated men is a display of food from an ARA remittance package. https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/ai-on-the-frontlines monthly 0.5 2026-03-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/be59aae3-75de-40b2-859f-84216bcf22d0/Prava+Domain+Registrations.jpg Drivers of Instability & Effects on our Democracies - AI on the Frontlines - Make it stand out Source: Newsguard (2025) https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/category/Commentary monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Stability monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Diplomacy monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Health monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Geopolitics monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Migration monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Europe monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Africa monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Communications monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/AI monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Security monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Governance monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Institutions monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Defense monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Resilience monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/EU monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Demographics monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Energy monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Sustainability monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Democracy monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Regulation monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Cities monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/drivers-of-instability-and-effects-on-our-democracies/tag/Transport monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/responsible-ai-in-science daily 0.75 2026-03-20 https://www.giefoundation.net/responsible-ai-in-science/managing-the-risks-of-generative-ai-in-academic-publishing monthly 0.5 2026-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/10dce060-1026-4220-9bb6-243ad49a684d/Intro_hres.jpg Responsible AI in Science - Managing the Risks of Generative AI in Academic Publishing - Summary AI tools such as large language models (LLMs) are being increasingly integrated into scientific workflows, but the implications of this integration remain elusive. These tools can potentially aid researchers in finding new scientific connections, summarising large data, detecting patterns, and improving writing. However, the risks involve propagating bias in data, fabricating information, lowering reproducibility, and facilitating the production of fraudulent scientific content aimed at exploiting “productivity” incentives. To avoid these risks, academic publishers have produced policies to guide authors, editors, and reviewers in incorporating these AI tools in their workflows, focusing on preserving research integrity. Our analysis shows that these policies from top publishers focus on short-term effects, lack specificity and do not include details on enforcement and consequences for non-compliance. Our key recommendations call for standardization across publishers, clear enforcement statements and constant re-evaluation of policies in parallel to progress in the AI field. Policymakers should monitor AI in Science and fund initiatives supporting scientific integrity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/69b76be1-f205-4ae1-86a6-02faff1b9b42/1_lowres.png Responsible AI in Science - Managing the Risks of Generative AI in Academic Publishing - Make it stand out Table 1. List of top 12 publishers and corresponding number of publications between 2012 and 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/e2f92a9b-7c16-4d4c-9b7a-a7f751be95a8/2_lowres.png Responsible AI in Science - Managing the Risks of Generative AI in Academic Publishing - Make it stand out Figure 1. Illustration of the common policy components identified through our logic model with example quotes directly from the publisher’s policies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/b82cf575-3402-4023-95f8-d97b04338228/3_lowres.png Responsible AI in Science - Managing the Risks of Generative AI in Academic Publishing - Make it stand out Table 2. Policy review scoring system based on the logic model definitions. Overall rating defined as ✓:2, ⚠:1, ✗:0 where the rows sum up to 10 and columns to 24. https://www.giefoundation.net/responsible-ai-in-science/category/Research+Report monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/responsible-ai-in-science/tag/AI monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/responsible-ai-in-science/tag/Regulation monthly 0.5 https://www.giefoundation.net/home daily 1.0 2026-02-05 https://www.giefoundation.net/about daily 0.75 2026-01-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/e72769a8-2275-46dc-ab0e-e5db6ad71acf/jpegPIA26112.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/f804c616-dcfd-474e-badf-2c0ebdbeb216/vredefort_oli_2018178_lrg.jpg https://www.giefoundation.net/contact daily 0.75 2026-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/686e515b44e0db004d610da0/aa4e06ea-8cfe-4e17-b87d-4d8345747115/jpegPIA01813.jpg https://www.giefoundation.net/people daily 0.75 2026-03-24 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