Modeling State Recognition as a Displacement Stabilizer in the Horn of Africa

Outdated diplomatic orthodoxy is blocking Somaliland’s role in stabilizing the Horn of Africa. A pragmatic shift is urgently needed to reflect the territory’s de facto governance and relieve mounting displacement pressures. Recognition or functional inclusion would unlock access to aid, security cooperation, and climate finance, tools Somaliland already has the capacity to use. Failing to act leaves migration unmanaged, maritime routes exposed, and one of the most stable actors in the region excluded from solutions.