Drivers of Instability and Effects on our Democracies
Modern democracies are under growing strain. Technological acceleration, climate stress, and geopolitical conditions place increasing pressure on our institutions, while institutional capacity is declining and trust in knowledge, science, and governance is weakening. The potential results of this instability is the collapse of democratic capacity to face the challenges of the 21st century.
We organize our research around two linked questions:
What is driving instability in modern democracies?
How do those pressures affect our societies and institutions?
Lena River Delta, Russia | NASA
Drivers of Instability
We examine the structural forces pushing our societies toward instability, including:
Technological disruption, particularly AI and information systems
Environmental and climate pressures, resource stress, and degradation
Geopolitical shocks, conflict, migration, and demographic change
Effects on our Democracies
We look at how these pressures translate into stress on democratic capacity, including:
Weakened knowledge and information systems
Loss of trust in science and public institutions
Strain on courts, constitutions, and checks and balances
Fragility in governance and electoral systems
Together, these dynamics create a serious risk: Democracies losing the ability to know what is true, coordinate collective action, and respond coherently to large-scale challenges.
Throughout this year, the GIE Foundation is publishing a focused set of commentaries examining how key instability pressures are evolving and how they affect democratic capacity in practice - and providing recommendations on what democratic societies can do about them.
Topics include:
Demographic decline and its implications for governance and social cohesion
AI transparency and trust in public and institutional decision-making
Polarisation, tipping points, and fragility in democratic systems
Defence, security, and public communication in democratic societies
Environmental and resource pressures shaping political stability
Additional pieces will follow as new risks, pressures, and potential leverage points emerge.
Below is a selection of the GIE Foundation’s Commentaries exploring these themes. These Commentaries seek to identify a specific leverage point where intervention can materially improve an aspect of stability in our democracies, and provide directional policy recommendations.
The Atlantic Divide on Parking Reform
European cities are more advanced compared with North American ones in reconciling the automobile with sustainable, liveable urban areas. But on both sides of the Atlantic there is more to do to address the high costs of mass automobile parking and over-reliance on private vehicles for urban journeys.
Modeling State Recognition as a Displacement Stabilizer in the Horn of Africa
Outdated diplomatic orthodoxy is blocking Somaliland’s role in stabilizing the Horn of Africa. A pragmatic shift is urgently needed to reflect the territory’s de facto governance and relieve mounting displacement pressures. Recognition or functional inclusion would unlock access to aid, security cooperation, and climate finance, tools Somaliland already has the capacity to use. Failing to act leaves migration unmanaged, maritime routes exposed, and one of the most stable actors in the region excluded from solutions.
Rebooting Nuclear Safety Regulation for the Electrification Era
Outdated and over-precautionary safety regulation is holding back nuclear power. A bold rethink is urgently needed to enable capacity expansion at lower cost. This is vital to unlock nuclear’s unique potential to meet fast-rising demand for reliable, affordable electricity while also driving down greenhouse gas emissions.
AI on the Frontlines
Large-language models are being used intensively by both sides in the Ukraine war, demonstrating their potential for offensive propaganda, but also how far they can help defend against political disinformation. Can AI help democracies win the information war?